By Our Team
AS the election fever grips the country following a frenzied debate by the clergy and a section of politicians and analysts, the Star of Nakuru reveals the behind the scenes calculations and maneuvers by key politicians in the country even as hopes of a stable coalition government become more bleak.
To beginners the coalition government came to be after the disputed 2007 presidential elections results that were followed by bloody ethnic clashes in the country hitherto never witnessed. After the signing of a national accord that required power sharing between President Kibaki and ODM leader Raila odinga as Prime Minister the improvised government has however failed to be stable in order to deliver services to Kenyans. This is because of persistent squabbles between the two principles and members of their political outfits over power sharing privileges.
As a result there have been calls from church leaders for the voters to go back to the ballot in order to elect a new government.
Obama
The international community led by the United States of America on the other hand continues to put pressure on the government to implement reforms in the country. Only recently the newly elected first African US president Mr.Barrack Obama who has roots in Kenya said that he would after all not honor his earlier planed visit to Kenya until the government implements the reform Agenda.
During his maiden tour of Africa the US president will skip Kenya his father’s country of birth, but instead will visit Ghana and Egypt. The mediation team that brokered a peace and power sharing deal between PNU and ODM led by former UN secretary general Mr.Kofi Annan, recommended that for the country to be stable key reforms in the constitution were necessary
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) partner chief, the Prime Minister Raila Odinga recently resolved that his party would no longer withstand its PNU partner’s continued disrespect of the principles that guide the National accord and the grand coalition’s government. According to Raila, Kibaki and his team have assumed a “one man” government and no longer recognize ODM.
Signs and civil coup allegations
To him, Kenyans should go back to the ballot to elect a rightful government. Raila has all along maintained that ODM won the presidential elections but PNU rigged and went ahead to put in a place a government even as violence rocked the country. ODM maintain that PNU should respect the national accord that put in place the grand coalition government or Kenyans go back to the poll.
It is to this basis that, we reveal the behind the scenes calculations by politicians from across the divide in a bid to secure safe grounds in the next elections.
Already, signs are in the offing after the speaker of the National Assembly Mr. Kenneth Marende dropped VP Kalonzo Musyoka from being the leader of government business in parliament.
Even as president Kibaki wrote to the speaker stating that his decision was constitutional and final, the speaker ruled that the two principles should consult on executive matters as provided for by the national accord act that stipulates supremacy. According to ODM, the Prime Minister should be the leader of government business as his party has majority members in parliament.
“We cannot allow someone with 12 MPs to be leader in the house” retorted Raila at a public rally in his Kibera constituency recently.
ODM became the largest party in parliament after the 2007 elections with 99 MPs. PNU On the other hand faired poorly and only managed to win 43 seats and together with its affiliate parties including ODM-Kenya and New Ford Kenya it commanded a total of 78,still more than 20 seats down to ODM.
In a bid to consolidate power in parliament Kibaki went ahead to appoint Kalonzo Musyoka as Vice President and automatically to be leader of government business in parliament. ODM who recently contested the move, pundits believe, were in a quick comeback to apply their supremacy in parliament to fight PNU who on the other hand allege that their partners are out for a parliamentary coup to remove president kibaki from power.
IIEC
The leader of government business in the house is also the chairman of the house business committee that determines the motions to be discussed by the house. “It would be therefore a grave mistake for PNU to allow ODM to hold the position which constitutionally any way belongs to them” says a pundit who sought anonymity. There have been attempts in the past by members of parliament to pass a vote of no confidence in a seating president a weapon that ODM may easily endeavor to turn tables on their counterparts. As such Kenyans would be required by law to go back to the ballot to elect new leaders to run the government.
According to the pundits Marende also a Personal lawyer to the Odinga’s family, ironically sided with ODM the party that sponsored him to the House Speaker position. Marende indefinitely appointed himself as the chairman of the house business committee on temporary basis before the two principles agree on who to be appointed.
To add soup to the meal, parliament in a quick budge recommended the names of the newly formed Independent Interim Electoral Commission (IIEC) officials a fact that analysts clue a sign of possible flash elections. As PNU charge Raila and his bandwagon as “power hungry leaders” ODM on the hand maintain that Kenyans can only be served well if the government implements constitutional reforms. The party blames a group of leaders allied to president Kibaki for frustrating the reform agenda in order to shield corrupt dealings.
Iron lady
Wrangles in president Kibaki’s kitchen cabinet over his succession and other string-pulling have culminated to the moving out of PNU by NARC – Kenya party led by the former constitutional affairs Minister Ms Martha Karua.
The so called Iron lady has since declared she would be vying for the presidency under the umbrella of NARC- Kenya come the next general elections. She resigned from the government recently after a long time of locking horns with the president and other leaders from Mt. Kenya region. Pundits however put it that her intelligence team had prior warned her of a looming “Kick out”.
The Gichugu MP was among the staunch followers of president Kibaki before she was sidelined from being named Deputy Prime Ministers in favor of Uhuru Kenyatta.
According to the pundits, Karua who played a central role in Kibaki’s re-election and as a member of the negotiation team during the power sharing agreement, expected nothing little from the president as a reward- but the post of the deputy prime minister under her former docket.
Her political about urn is however viewed as a blessing to ODM who seem to be reading from the same script with her. She assert that she resigned from the government because it harbors corruption .Recently in parliament, Karua retrieved the ghosts of the Anglo leasing scandal in which billions of tax payers money was siphoned out of the country and mobilized MPs in accusing the Attorney General for abducting his legal role. The house speaker has since ruled for a fresh investigation in the matter by parliament.
The unstoppable Karua and her right hand man Danson Mungatana have been hard liners in PNU politics and thus a thorn in the flesh of ODM. Amid here exit, the Prime Ministers outfit can afford to breath freely. According to our impeccable sources, rumors are flying high in the political corridors that the group plans to form a political alliance with ODM to teach PNU a lesson.
This comes after plans are high to endorse either Uhuru Kenyatta or George Saitoti as a PNU flag bearer. Pundits hold that the Irony lady is capable of scoring big political goals should she decide to back Raila either wholly or as a coalition partner. To starters, Central Kenya tuff has a history of not voting for any candidate outside the region and pundits see this factor as being a secret weapon in the next elections. “Narc-Kenya indeed seems to be the new kid on the block in politics.” Say analysts.
The Ruto factor
According to the political thinkers hopes to derail ODM’s strength by PNU is trying to marry the controversial and over ambitions Rift Valley’s ODM politician William Ruto with Uhuru Kenyatta who sources say may be hoping to try his hands on the presidency. In the recent past and lately, Ruto is said to be bedding his presidential ambitions hoping to get full support from his home province and from central province.
The provinces are on record as regions with highest voter turnout index in the country. Ruto was recently at home urging his residents to support one of their own. Ironically, says a pundit, Ruto believes that he will get the full support of Uhuru or Kalonzo should he ditch ODM. According to the political thinkers it will be ironical for a Rift valley/ Central tuff (read- KK) political marriage, given to the fresh wounds and memories of the bloody political violence that potholed the two ethnic groups.
The warrior from Kamagut village in Uasin Gishu has all along been linked to ethnic clashes in the region since 1992, 1997 and lately 2007.A source on the internet says that a leaked alleged ODM strategic plan named Ruto as the mastermind of ethnic cleansing. Ruto has also been coupled to vice involving public coffers a fact that pundits believe may frustrate his presidential bid. The politician subsequently has denied that it is not his travel documents that an X has been put on by a superpower nation.
On the other hand Uhuru Kenyatta the last born son of Kenya’s founding president Jomo Kenyatta, first tried his attempt for the presidency in 2002 as a “Moi Project” The political lad was however rejected by most voters in the country on the principle that “Kenya is not a Monarch” He has denied links by the Human Rights Commission of Kenya (HRCK) as being one of a group of politicians who organized and funded ethnic clashes in parts of Rift valley, central and Nairobi during the post poll violence. The newly appointed Finance minister also found himself in trouble when he tabled in parliament wrong information concerning a supplementary budget.
The ultimate game
The pundits believe that the man from the lake has an edge over other interests to state house should the current state of political events maintain the trend. His yard stick associates like Musalia Mudavadi, Sally Kosgey, Henry Kosgey, Fraklin Bet, Najib Balala,Omingo Magara, and William Ntimama among others according to the political analysts, are well placed to guarantee him a national leader.
While the Mt. Kenya tuff that seldom votes out side the region lack a potential challenger with such national outfit qualities, pundits view a similar voting trend of the last, should elections be held now. The analysts who exclusively talked to us say that his political nemesis will have to work extra hard to diminish his chances of ascending to power by dividing votes extraneously countrywide. An already sign of this has been cited by pundits in the mushrooming districts being created by the president in several parts of the country. However as the saying goes that surprises are plenty in politics and that politics is a dirty game, and not forgetting a famous definition of a politician from our reference books-“one who gets to power using dubious means” Only time will tell the destiny.
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